Brighton & Hove Albion have built a reputation as one of the Premier League’s most astute talent developers—and Carlos Baleba is their latest gem attracting big-name suitors. At just 21, the Cameroonian midfielder is drawing strong interest from Manchester United. But with Brighton reportedly valuing him at a staggering £120 million, the Red Devils must ask: is he worth the investment?
Brighton’s Transfer Model: A Blueprint of Success
Brighton’s recruitment strategy continues to set them apart. Despite losing top-tier talents like Moisés Caicedo, Alexis Mac Allister, and Marc Cucurella in recent seasons, the Seagulls have remained competitive. Each sale has been followed by a smart reinvestment—Carlos Baleba being a prime example.
Signed from Lille in 2023 for just £23.2 million, Baleba was brought in to fill Caicedo’s void. One year on, he’s being linked with a high-profile move to Old Trafford, though Brighton’s lofty valuation could serve as a warning shot to potential suitors.
What Carlos Baleba Brings to the Table
Tackling and Defensive Work
Baleba’s tackling numbers are solid, albeit not elite. Last season, he attempted 79 tackles and succeeded in 46, translating to a 58.2% success rate. While this lags behind the likes of Casemiro (60.2%) and Manuel Ugarte (63.6%), it’s not the full story.
Where Baleba excels is in disrupting play. He led the trio in possessions won with 197—nearly double Casemiro’s 103 and well ahead of Ugarte’s 122. His reading of the game, anticipation, and ability to break up attacks is arguably his strongest asset.
Passing Precision
In possession, Baleba is composed and efficient. He completed 1,143 of his 1,300 attempted passes, boasting an 87.9% accuracy. This surpasses Casemiro’s 80.2% and is just behind Ugarte’s 88.6%, though the Uruguayan attempted far fewer passes.
This combination of volume and accuracy suggests Baleba isn’t just safe in possession—he’s consistently involved in play, something United’s current midfield has lacked in recent campaigns.
Progressive Play and Discipline
Ball Progression
One of Baleba’s underrated qualities is his ability to drive the ball forward. He recorded 415 ball carries last season, 200 of which were progressive. He also recovered possession 107 times in central areas, highlighting his box-to-box potential.
Disciplinary Record
Discipline could be a key differentiator. Ugarte, for example, picked up 11 yellow cards last season. Baleba, by comparison, has 15 across two full seasons. A more controlled and disciplined presence in midfield could be invaluable for United in high-stakes matches.
Room to Grow—and Time on His Side
In one-on-one duels, Baleba attempted 359 challenges, winning 199 (55.4%). While slightly lower than Casemiro’s 63.5%, it’s notable that Baleba’s sample size is far greater. At 21, he has more upside than either Casemiro (33) or Ugarte (24), and he’s already competing at their level.
Given Brighton’s track record of developing talent and Baleba’s rapid rise, his potential ceiling in a more dominant team setup—like Manchester United’s—could be enormous.
United’s Midfield Conundrum
For United, reinforcing defensive midfield has become critical. New attacking additions like Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Šeško offer promise, but without a solid base, the team risks repeating old patterns. Baleba could be the long-term solution to a long-standing issue.
Will United Pay the Price?
With the transfer window closing soon, a decision must be made. Brighton’s £120 million valuation might seem excessive, but given Baleba’s age, output, and potential, it might be more of a warning than a wall. Whether United break the bank or walk away, this saga is set to reach its conclusion within days.
